Shifting State Energy Policies Change the Math
As more states push for greener solutions and stricter energy codes while grappling with costs, timelines, and the uncertainty of future supplies
UNITED: Eleven states have adopted legislation that is similar to the California Air Resource Board, says Dan Reider, P.E., in his latest column for ES NEWS.
Our everyday lives are inundated not only with national news but also with the events happening in our own states. It is often hard to be concerned about things that may take place a year or two from now, and probably next to impossible to concern ourselves with events that may or may not occur until 30 or 40 years from now. Still, more and more states are taking at least some steps to address the energy concerns of their states and of our country.
One concern for many is our energy usage and overall energy efficiency. All states, except for a few, have to meet energy code requirements for new construction and for existing buildings that exceed certain parameters. It is a little hard for some of us to understand why a significant number of states have remained on very old energy standards – some as old as 2009. The argument is often made that the state does not want to increase the initial cost of a building to make it more energy efficient, perhaps not realizing that over the life of the building, the energy costs for those buildings can be significantly reduced.
One action some states have started, or are beginning to take, is to find ways to reduce or eliminate oil and gas consumption. There may be a couple of reasons for this – both of which are at least a little controversial. Some believe that carbon emissions are leading to increased global warming and want to get off fossil fuels. Another concern, which is the concern of a far smaller number of people, is that of diminishing oil and gas supplies in the world. When researching this issue on the internet, one finds a number of theories regarding how much oil and gas remains on this planet. These opinions range from the belief that there is almost an infinite supply on Earth and we have just not yet found where these reserves are, to the other extreme which states that all known supplies will only last another 40 years before we run out.
Whatever the overriding concern is, we see a number of states moving towards the elimination of gasoline-powered vehicles. The leader of this movement is California, and their California Air Resources Board (CARB), which developed regulations to control vehicle emissions. Initially, in 2012, CARB included regulations to reduce vehicle emissions. Then, in 2022, CARB updated its standards so that all new vehicles must meet their zero-emissions standards.
Since that time, eleven states – Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Delaware, Maine, and Maryland – have each adopted legislation along similar lines as the California CARB regulations. Some of these states, such as Maine, want zero-emission vehicles as soon as 2028. Vermont set a date of 2030, while most of the others have a self-imposed deadline of 2035.
Another measure being implemented by some states is the requirement that home heating be provided by heat pumps – no gas heating permitted. California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Rhode Island have tentatively set a date of 2040 by which they want electric heat pumps to condition 90% of all residences. While the leaders of these states understand that much of the electricity for the heat pumps currently comes from fossil fuel energy plants, the generation of electricity at these plants is far more efficient than operating residential gas-fired boilers or furnaces. That is, it takes significantly less fuel to generate electricity at a power plant for consumers to operate electric heat pumps than the amount of fuel that would be necessary for those same consumers to operate their own gas-fired boilers or furnaces if they remained on gas heating.
For those who believe the changes being discussed are absolutely necessary, the question boils down to this: if oil and gas supplies on the entire planet will last only for another 40 years, when is the appropriate time to start making the transition to another fuel source for power? There are approximately 60 nuclear power plants in design or construction around the world. Until very recently, there was almost no discussion in the United States about nuclear power. Recently, there has been a little more interest in nuclear power in the United States – primarily about modular nuclear power plants to serve data centers, which consume huge amounts of electricity.
So, is the approach that many in the United States are taking – that the world has centuries of oil and gas reserves which the oil companies have just not found yet and we have nothing to be concerned about – an acceptable approach to this issue? Others, but maybe not many, are saying that we need to get very concerned about where we are headed and should not leave it for our children and grandchildren to deal with. Our US leaders don’t seem to have much concern. Should they? Should we?
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