The conference, put on by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), was led off by David Seiders, chief economist of the NAHB. Seiders noted that back in April there was massive uncertainty about the economy due to the war in Iraq and the tax cut package proposed by the Bush administration. "The general consensus was for a weak first half of the year and a very good second half." Seiders remarked that the NAHB has raised its expectations for the second half.
He said that real GDP (gross domestic product) growth would be dynamic for the third quarter and would still be solid over the balance of the year. His predictions for 2004 called for 4.5 percent growth in the first quarter of 2004, 4 percent for the second quarter, 3.8 percent for the third quarter, and 3.7 percent for the fourth quarter.