The last two years have been very good for the HVAC industry, as contractors, distributors, and manufacturers have struggled to keep up with the robust demand for new equipment. In fact, according to Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI), the wholesale HVACR distribution market was worth an estimated $52.8 billion in 2022, a jump of about 23% from the previous year. The median year-over-year sales growth among distributors in 2021 was 18.9%, well above the median annual growth rate of 5.8% that distributors averaged between 2011 and 2020.
But there are signs of slowing, as HARDI distributors reported sales growth of only 12.2% during November 2022, the slowest monthly increase since July 2021, said Brian Loftus, market research and benchmarking analyst at HARDI.