As most people know by now, last December, Congress passed the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act, which gave the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) the authority to phase down HFC refrigerants to 15% of their baseline levels by 2036. The cuts start next year, as the industry must reduce production of HFCs by 10%, and then a steep cut comes in 2024, when production must be reduced to 60% of the baseline established by EPA.
As a result, the cost of HFC refrigerants is predicted to rise, and it is important to remember that this is a feature of the legislation: the HFC phasedown is designed to create an economic supply imbalance with demand. In terms of basic economics, that means that there will be a reduced supply, scarcity, and subsequently, increased prices.