Under the federal American Innovation in Manufacturing (AIM) Act, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been given the authority to phase down the consumption and production of high-GWP HFC refrigerants in the U.S., such as R-410A and R-404A, by 85% over the next 15 years. If not handled correctly, there is concern that the U.S. phasedown could resemble that of the European Union (EU), which has experienced a number of problems since it started phasing down HFCs (or F-Gases, as they’re called there) in 2015.
Per the 2014 EU F-Gas Regulation guidelines, production of virgin HFCs in the EU (compared to the baseline) was cut about 7% percent in 2016, but in 2018, that rose to 37%, and in 2021, 55%. Knowing that these steep drop-offs would occur, experts had hoped end users would proactively reduce their use of HFCs. But that did not happen, and prices of some HFCs skyrocketed, contractors scrambled to find refrigerant at any price, and a thriving black market for illegally imported refrigerants continues to plague the region.