A forecast in this day and age is actually always going to be wrong because the reality is complex. On a global scale, one needs to conduct economic forecasts that will almost never hit the true outcome. This is similar to sales forecasts and logistics forecasts that depend on other factors to come true. They will be off. But that’s OK. Because one who views a forecast only as something that absolutely has to come true does not understand forecasting.
A forecast is a social construct. And it is created through analytics, and at the same time, people often view forecasting as a kind of “natural principle,” that the forecast is the same as a physics equation. But this is not true. Forecasts are constructed and probably depend on as much as thoughts and assumptions as on a “reality.” Take the example of “profit.” People often think that there is and can be only one figure for profit. But it’s a social construct. It depends on what one wants to communicate. Profit can vary from country to country, depending on legislation. Logistics forecast can be different depending on how the input variables were interpreted (“hmm, my risky estimate” …).