Forecasters are generally optimistic sorts. We are naturally bright-siders and more likely to err on the border of being too optimistic. Our kids are always the most talented ones on the field and, our dog is the best, but to tell you the truth, not really the smartest. As usual, our glass was more than half full at the Sidetrack Tap Saloon in Lake Wobegon when Distribution Center found us last autumn and asked us to write a forecast article for 2015. At the time, the annualized sales growth for HARDI distributors had been steady in the 6.5 percent range and, like us, it showed no intention of moving from where we were at; the annual growth rate had exceeded 7 percent only three times during the prior 36 months. Ever the optimist, I channeled my inner Cubs Fan and forecast “the average growth rate will improve during 2015 and will likely exceed 8 percent during the back half of 2015.”
The last time TRENDS sales growth was in 8 percent territory was June 2011. That healthy pace was a result of being compared with an abysmal prior year. June 2011 only looked that strong by comparison. 2015 did not have that benefit and, as of this writing, my forecast for the year looks a bit optimistic. But the Cubs did almost make it to the World Series, and the TRENDS annual growth rate did accomplish that rare achievement of exceeding 7 percent. Maybe 2016 is the year we return to 8 percent growth territory, but probably not.