Things are looking good for HARDI members as we head into 2015. The U.S. economy, the housing industry and commercial construction are all forecast to expand at reasonable levels through the coming year.
The all-important consumer is in a good financial position. Delinquency Rates on Consumer Loans (chart below) are very low. The level of delinquency has dropped below the cyclical lows established in 1993 and 2004-05, suggesting that the consumer is in a good position to spend cash. We are adding debt to our personal balance sheets, but at a manageable pace. With a rising trend in employment and a mild cyclical rise in Disposable Personal Income under way, the consumer is in better shape heading into the end of the year than we had thought would be the case. HARDI members should benefit from the demand-pull of consumer spending.