The leaves have stopped changing color, and football is still on TV, so that means it is time for members to call for assistance with their market analysis for the year ahead. At HARDI, we continually monitor a variety of national and regional economic data points to help our members understand the health of the markets where they operate. We also have proprietary data from our TRENDS monthly distributor sales analysis report and a quarterly unitary market share report. We are ready to support members with insight into the direction and pace of their markets, any time of the year. Most members have calendar fiscal years, so discussing the story being told by the HVAC indicators is frequently done while discussing the relative merits of players for our fantasy football teams. Many HARDI members are informed, entertaining and passionate about both topics.
According to our TRENDS report, HARDI distributors’ average annual sales growth remained rather steady in the 6.5 percent area for most of 2014. This national average is comprised of regions experiencing growth on both sides of that level. We support our members with insight into the relative strength of their specific regions. We do not possess magical equations to predict what the average national growth rate will be in six or 12 months, or what date a specific forecast growth rate will be achieved. We do expect the overall average growth rate to be improving during 2015 and will probably exceed 8 percent during the back half of 2015. That is not a bold prediction, and here is why.