Feb. 18, 2013: AIA Projects Steady Increase in U.S. Construction Activity Through 2014
WASHINGTON — Even though growth in the U.S. economy continues to be disappointing, nonresidential construction activity is projected to see healthy if unspectacular gains this year, with construction spending for buildings rising by 5 percent in 2013 before accelerating to 7.2 percent in 2014, according to a report from the American Institute of Architects (AIA). The construction of commercial facilities is expected to lead the upturn, with spending gains of almost 9 percent this year and nearly 11 percent next year, led by double-digit gains in hotel construction. Industrial construction spending is projected to nearly match the overall nonresidential building totals this year and next, while institutional construction activity should lag behind, with modest single-digit gains over each of the next two years. Health care is expected to be the strongest institutional sector.
These predictions from the AIA’s Consensus Construction Forecast Panel, comprised of some of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, are consistent with information derived from the AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI). While national ABI numbers were mixed in 2011 — suggesting an uneven performance for construction in 2012 — they were more uniformly positive in 2012. Eight of the 12 months of 2012 showed positive national ABI readings, including the final five months of the year. The ABI readings in the fourth quarter of 2012 were the strongest quarter since the downturn began in early 2008, suggesting that construction activity should begin to accelerate significantly in the first half of 2013.