ACHRNEWS

Murphy's Law: The Perfect Storm Is Brewing

May 5, 2008

Depending upon your point of view, you might see clouds on that horizon or you might see the winds of change.

WEATHER BULLETIN: Today, the add-on replacement is the most consistent thing going on in the HVAC industry. Every year the inventory in this maturing market continues to grow older, regardless of the economic factors. Thanks to Jan. 23, 2006, the aging systems in these homes must be replaced with even higher-efficiency products.

Add to this storm, four critical dates in your customers’ futures. In 2010 new equipment will no longer be built with R-22, and the available R-22 will be reduced by 75 percent. In 2015 the amount of available R-22 will be reduced by 90 percent, and in 2020, by 99.5 percent. For all practical purposes, in 2030 there will be no more virgin R-22 at all, though you can still service with it as long as somebody is willing to pay the price.

Let me throw in one more critical date - by 2013, if not sooner, you will see tremendous price increases for R-22. R-410A is not being adopted as quickly by the general industry as had been expected. Demand for R-22 is still going up at a time when supplies are going down.

Do you happen to have a head start on the branding and acceptance of R-410A? Have you already begun to push the environmental friendliness of R-410A? “Yes,” you say? Then, as I look in my crystal ball, I see an opportunity in your immediate future.

If you have been slow to adopt, put a plan in place to take advantage of the perfect storm.