HARDI’s monthly Targeted and Regional Economic News for Distribution Strategies (TRENDS) report showed growth in six of seven U.S. regions, with five achieving double-digit increases.

“The annual growth rate improved for the third straight month, rising above 3 percent,” said HARDI economist Andrew Duguay. “March sales, on average, were 11.5 percent higher than March 2011, building off the 9.6 percent February gain. Momentum from the rates-of-change is clearly positive. The activity at the distributor level is also being reflected in national consumer data. Retail sales have also shifted to higher growth rates in 2012, from 1.7 percent in January to 1.9 percent in March. This is a positive confirming indicator for the current HARDI distributor growth rate trend.”

Days Sales Outstanding (a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills) crept up for the seventh time in eight months, increasing to over 52 days. Distributor productivity reflected by sales per employee emphatically bucked a seven-month decline by rebounding over 22 percent from last month’s figures.

“Optimism is high as we see distributors stocking up more strategically for strong anticipated demand this summer,” said Talbot Gee, executive vice president and COO, HARDI. “Light commercial markets appear to be a source of unexpectedly strong growth, and the early heat has provided a nice jump-start to the cooling season.

“Distributors’ unitary sales are also starting off 2012 strong across most product groups, but with an accelerating movement to 13 SEER and R-22 products. Recent OEM reports of exceptional preseason order volumes support our forecast for a strong unitary market in 2012.”

Publication date: 05/21/2012