Regional Reports / Canada

Forecast Varies for 2011 Shipments

MISSISSAUGA, Ontario - The annual statistics forecast for 2011 has been released by the Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Conditioning Institute of Canada (HRAI). According to HRAI, its forecast projects significant changes in the following product groups: chillers, ductless split systems, and residential air conditioning. The association predicts very little change to the other product groups it tracks (commercial air conditioning, residential furnaces, and unit heaters).

CFC chiller regulations that come into effect in Ontario at the end of 2011 should result in the largest forecast increase of 10 percent in chiller bookings. A forecasted return to more typical shipments of ductless split systems should account for the largest decrease of 16 percent in 2011.

The 2011 forecast figures for each product group are as follows:

Commercial air conditioning: Actual shipments in 2009 were 34,434. The projected year-end figure for 2010 shows an increase of 10 percent to 38,000. The forecast for 2011 projects a 3 percent increase to 39,000.

Residential air conditioning: Compared to the actual 2009 shipments of 193,483, the projected 2010 figure shows an increase of 16 percent to 225,000. The 2011 forecast projects a decrease over 2010 of 6 percent to 212,000.

Residential furnaces: Actual 2009 shipments were 347,694. The projected year-end figure for 2010 shows a decrease of 13 percent to 301,000. The forecast for 2011 projects a decrease over 2010 of 2 percent to 296,000.

Unit heaters: Actual shipments in 2009 were 42,763. The projected year-end figure for 2010 shows an increase of less than 1 percent to 43,000 while the forecast for 2011 projects a less-than-1-percent increase to 44,000.

Ductless split systems: Compared to the actual 2009 shipments of 34,677, the projected 2010 figure shows an increase of 102 percent to 70,000. The 2011 forecast projects a decrease over 2010 of 16 percent to 60,000.

Chillers: Actual bookings in 2009 were 723. The projected year-end figure for 2010 shows an increase of 38 percent to 1,000. The forecast for 2011 projects an increase over 2010 of 10 percent to 1,100.

Publication date: 01/17/2011

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